QUEST: QUasi-biennial oscillation: Enhancing Stratospheric Theoretical understanding

Understanding the sources of variability in the atmosphere is vital for weather and climate prediction. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a regular pattern of wind, between 15 and 40 km high in the tropical stratosphere, that reverses direction every 14 months. It is arguably the largest source of stratospheric year-to-year variability and its impacts range globally from changing monsoon precipitation to affecting winter flooding in Europe.

The project aims to develop a fast model incorporating all key processes influencing the QBO, allowing for rapid simulations and selective examination of individual interactions. This approach will enable a detailed analysis of how different processes affect QBO behavior and facilitate the creation of new mathematical frameworks to explain and address current model shortcomings. By improving the understanding of QBO dynamics, the project will enhance the capability to predict its impact on surface climate and contribute to better seasonal forecasting.