Predicting hidden toxins in vital food supply chains

Maize is a primary income source and an important component for nutrition in the diets of many people in countries across Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Food production in several of these regions is already under increasing pressure and is predicted to further decline under conditions brought about by climate change. This is significant because the optimal conditions for the growth of the saprotrophic fungi that produce aflatoxins are associated with increased temperature and humidity. While high-income countries are able to rely on high-tech solutions for reducing levels of contamination during growing, storing and transporting cereal crops, those that are less well-resourced require reliable, cost-effective methods of reducing the risk to food supplies.

Despite the awareness of the dangers of contaminated maize entering the food supply chain, and models that can accurately predict levels of Aspergillus and aflatoxin in the field, numerous cases of aflatoxin contamination at the factory gate are commonly reported. Where most risk prediction models have focused on the pre-harvest dynamics of A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production, the Epidemiology and Modelling team’s approach is to build integrated epidemiological modelling frameworks which enable coverage of the entire supply chain from planting to delivery and allows for predicting the costs and benefits of various aflatoxin mitigation interventions. The work, funded through a research-industry partnership, aims to identify and reduce the sources of mycotoxin contamination entering the supply-chain, removing potential barriers for farmers and their cooperatives to supply external markets.