Addressing the Impacts on Biodiversity of Area Protection and Food Systems Trade-offs

Ambitious land-based biodiversity conservation targets (e.g., “30×30” from the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, which aims to protect 30% of terrestrial and marine ecosystems by the year 2030) may carry an unintended risk. As land is set aside for conservation, food production can be displaced beyond borders, and along with it the biodiversity impacts of agricultural expansion, a phenomenon known as ‘leakage’. Despite growing concern and emerging case-based research, robust, global evidence of the links between protected‑area expansion and increased reliance on food imports – and thus externalised land‑use pressure and biodiversity risk – remains limited.

This project will test, across multiple countries, whether protected-area expansion raises net food imports after controlling for known drivers of trade and production, thus determining whether the implementation of protected areas results in displaced agricultural production. This will identify recent ‘hotspots’ for leakage, from which a high-resolution spatial follow-up using remotely sensed data will be made possible. Together, these findings will inform where, and at what governance level, leakage risks should be mitigated.