A framework for modelling desert locust population dynamics and large-scale dispersal

Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) is one of the most dangerous migratory pests for millions of subsistence farmers across sub-Saharan Africa, making control a priority for food security in many regions. The project developed a novel integrated modelling framework for use in predicting desert locust populations giving government agencies, agronomists and farmers time to prepare. The framework integrates selection of breeding sites, maturation through egg, hopper and adult stages and swarm disperse in search of areas suitable for feeding and breeding. Using a combination of concepts from epidemiological modelling, weather and environment data, together with an atmospheric transport model for swarm movement it provides a tool to forecast short-and long-term swarm movements. As climate change leads to new areas being under threat from desert locust invasions, our approach offers a practical starting point for use in tackling upcoming upsurges.